“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us…”
Politics and Elections
A year of elections is upon us. Some will have positive outcomes for the world economy, though some will not. It will not be the end of democracy, yet in some countries freedoms will reduce and inequality of opportunity will increase. The most important election will be in the USA. It is a very hard to call the result. I have a hunch that Biden might sneak it, but I think that may be a bias and it isn’t based on much. So its a 50-50 call with very skewed outcomes. If we get a Trump second term, I think the policy outcomes will be more chaotic and variable than most commentators expect. It will also cause the politicisation of the legal processes in the US to an ever greater level; one that any subsequent president is likely to have to deal with constitutionally. Whatever the outcome American politics will continue to turn inwards – a self creating Amerexit from being the leading world power.
In the UK its hard to see beyond the Labour Party winning the election whenever it is held. It is likely they will have a good working majority with SNP losing seats, LibDems gaining a few and the Cons falling a long way, but winning a few more seats than polls suggest today. Its hard to see a Starmer government being able to reverse the UK’s ongoing malaise in living standards, policy and economics.
Economics
With the possibility of interest rates entering an easing cycle in developed economies, there is the chance of reasonable growth returning to the world economy. Most commentators are less sanguine about growth ‘returning to the long term average’; and I agree with this consensus view. China will lag, and cause itself a harder landing than might have been due to mismatched policies versus their economic situation. Europe may have marginally slower growth than expected, the rest of Asia will have a bit of a China chill. America might be ok this year, but this may not last. Reduced trade through a China slow-down, and tension plus populist policies coming to the fore will reduce global GDP. The cost of decarbonisation will reduce GDP. It's likely commodity shocks will also marginally reduce GDP. National debt struggles in the developing and frontier markets will also reduce total GDP a little, though be more important to the particular country than global growth. There is no peace dividend or innovation that will make up the shortfall. It is hard to be sanguine on global growth prospects.
Debt markets will be interesting this year. It feels that best on reducing yields will increase, especially if worries on growth increase. But with some sticky inflation, large bets in the basis and good sized short positioning there may be difficult days through illiquidity and large moves in the longer dates. My guess is equities up, credit ok and bond curves flatter, especially in the US.
The forward curves may be under-predicting the average measured inflation for the coming year too. But I think the trend will be more varied across countries than markets expect; and more varied inside sectors and groups of people inside those countries. If countries try to borrow too much, there may be borrowing base volatility and rising yields too. I think this is not this years story though. One for the future.
Wars
I didn’t see a neat end to the Ukrainian war last year, nor do I see one this year. The attritional nature to the conflict and the great cost to Ukraine seems to lead to Ukraine becoming more dependent on military aid just as the western donors may back away from the practical help needed for Ukraine to maintain the defence of their current situation. Prior to this it is likely there will be successes for the Ukrainian military, but also some reverses. A cease-fire looks difficult due to the entrenched positions of both Russia and Ukraine. If Russia begins to consolidate their position and keep casualties down they may be able to get to a position they are happy to allow become the de facto outcome. Ukraine must be realistic on what they can achieve before they lose enough support that they may end up losing the war completely. Russia is demonstrating more staying power than Ukraine can sustain over the longer term.
Again no invasion of Taiwan. Pressure of course, but no invasion this year. And still I think maybe never. But China’s pressure on the rest of the South China Seas will remain. The ASEAN nations may have to make compromises in soft and hard power to China to keep growth and development aims on track.
Significant migration to Europe will continue. But Africa will continue to develop. There are opportunities in Africa as well as issues.
The Israeli-Gaza conflict will mean any chance for peace or change in the region diminishing massively. In this sense this part of the Iran-Saudi proxy war has been successful for Iran. I expect the intent of Iran to stoke conflict will mean many incidents and minor skirmishes this year. No all out war, but the taking of sides will start to be expected of any allies or associate nations of the main players.
Science and Innovation
Science and innovation are areas were unexpected growth can be created. The zeitgeist on science this year may be more about job losses from ‘AI’ than advantages.
Digitalisation of markets and assets will continue to pick up in pace. It is still in the ‘below the radar phase’ in effect, if not in investment, but the start of strong growth will be visible at the end of the year. Cybercrime and cyber risks remain one of the largest risks, but they can be mitigated. Continue to spend money on cyber resilience, and preparedness.
Don’t forget about Quantum Computing. Progress continues here. Stability is an issue, but some science style uses will emerge.
Fusion - critical area. More progress this year I think, on top of good progress last year. The story that fusion power is always 20 years away has some merit. Too many people have gone early with their calls. Yet I think economically viable fusion power will be a significant part of the generation mix in 20 years.
Climate Change
The game of prisoners dilemma of climate change continues. It is likely states reducing their usage of fossil fuels will need to levy taxes against states that do not. Thus reduction targets of greenhouse gases will be missed. Preparing for the poorer end of one's scenarios now looks sensible. Western Europe may suffer some loss of economic power and growth through the change to electric cars. The practical reality is the infrastructure is not in place for the ambition of the policies in place.
Climate change technologies are worth looking out for. The world has got to the point where only innovation can move the needle to reduce prospective average temperature rises. Carbon capture and alternative power generation will become more important.
I hope you find the above thought provoking. I haven’t said much about banking this year, as I see the sector avoiding major issues for the year – but in finance you never really know! I’m always happy to listen to new viewpoints. Fingers crossed again for 2024.
Lewis O'Donald
1st February 2024
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